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BUBBLE TROUBLE
Most people like bubbles. Some like to bathe in bubbles;others to drink them. To live in a bubble can be thought a pleasant state. Bubbles also have an attractive metaphysical quality. Three centuries ago，the English poet Francis Quarles asked what was lighter than wind，fire or even the mind？“A thought，”he replied.“Than thought？This bubble world.”Yet after the 10 bubble years of the noughties，many want to ①see them regulated out of existence——ideally forever.
Bubbles——as shown by the ②emerging markets headrush of the late 1990s，the dotcom frenzy that followed it，and the subsequent popping of the credit boom——have many pernicious effects. They result in poor capital allocation. They can promote social mo-bility——the lucky or talented entrepreneur who makes good riding the boom.More often，though，bubbles are inequitable. They reward those who own assets，versus the poor，③who usually do not. The rise in Thai and Indonesian infant mortality rates after the Asian economic crisis is the bubble world’s ④Janus face.
Yet bubbles，like all cycles，are inevitable. They will remain so long as people trade freely and prices are set by supply and demand. They existed in medieval Europe，17th century Amsterdam and 19th century America——⑤long before central banks that kept interest rates artificially low or state-sponsored mortgage lenders that subsidised homeowners.
One irony of the bubbling noughties is that it was also the decade of the so-called “Great Moderation”.But then the ⑥bust subsequently revealed the idea of permanent stability to be a false god.The ideal，rather，is one where the excesses of bubbles are moderated，not eliminated. Honest turmoil，as commentator James Grant put it，has always been the way of the world. Here’s to it.
譯文梗概
泡沫之憂
大多數人喜歡泡沫。有的人喜歡洗泡泡浴，有的人喜歡喝帶泡沫的飲料。生活在泡沫之中可以被視為一種愜意的狀態。泡沫還有一種迷人的玄學特質。300年前，英國詩人弗朗西斯·夸爾斯問，什么比風、火乃至精神更輕？“一個想法，”他回答道。“那么比想法更輕的呢？這個泡沫世界。”然而，充滿泡沫的本世紀頭十年過后，許多人希望看到的是，它們能被監管擠掉——最好是永遠擠掉。
正如上世紀90年代末的新興市場熱潮、繼而出現的網絡狂熱以及接下來突現的信貸繁榮所顯示的那樣，泡沫有眾多致命影響。它們會導致資本配置不當。它們可幫助那些成功借助繁榮“東風”的、幸運或有才能的企業家提高社會地位。但更多情況下，泡沫是不公平的。它們獎賞的是那些有產者，通常是無產者的窮人則一無所獲。亞洲經濟危機過后泰國與印尼嬰兒死亡率的上升，就是這個泡沫世界的另一面。
不過，和所有周期一樣，泡沫也是不可避免的。只要人們自由交易，只要價格由供求關系決定，泡沫就永遠存在。它們存在于中世紀的歐洲、17世紀的阿姆斯特丹、19世紀的美國——遠在人為壓低利率的央行出現之前，也遠在由政府資助的、向購房者提供補貼的抵押貸款機構出現之前。
諷刺的是，充滿泡沫的這十年還是所謂的“大緩和”(Great Moderation)十年。但隨后出現的經濟蕭條便揭示出，“永恒穩定”的概念只是個偽真理。相反，理想情況是過剩的泡沫得到消減，而不是消除。正如評論家詹姆斯(James Grant)所言，真實的動蕩始終是這個世界運轉的方式。讓我們為這句話干一杯！
(文章來源：FT中文網)
點評：
①see them regulated，該結構為“謂語動詞+賓語+過去分詞(done)”表示“賓語”被……；(過去分詞與前面的賓語具有動賓關系)。
②emerging，boom，headrush，fenzy四個詞均可用來指新興的事物，前兩者傾向于褒義，后兩者則比較中性甚至貶義。
③who usually do not是“who usually do not own assets”的承前省略。
④Janus，杰納斯：古羅馬門神，被描繪為有分別朝向相反方的兩個面孔。
⑤long before，很久以前，注意對照before long，不久以后。
⑥bust,在此意為a time or period of widespread financial depression，recession，可譯為“經濟蕭條”。 |